Blackjack Strategy Charts Explained – The How, Why and When

Reading the Charts

A blackjack strategy chart is organized with the player's hand down the left side and the dealer's up card along the top. To use the chart, you find your hand on the left, the dealer's up card along the top, and the recommended action is where the two intersect.

If your hand consists of three cards or more, you simply add up the total of all cards in your hand and find that total on the chart. For example, if you're dealt a 6 and a 5 for a total of 11, and you choose to hit and receive another 5, your total is now 16. You then look up 16 on the chart to decide your next move. Keep in mind that the strategy chart assumes the next card is unknown, so the recommended action is based on the probabilities of all possible next cards.

For hands with an Ace that can be counted as either 1 or 11, known as 'soft' hands, the chart often has a separate section because these hands have different strategic considerations. If you're dealt an Ace and a 5, for instance, you have a 'soft' 16 and should find your recommended action in the 'soft' hands section of the chart.

It's important to note that these charts do not guarantee a win; they merely provide the statistically best decision to make in any given situation. The actual outcome of the game still depends on the shuffle of the deck and the luck of the draw.

Below is a simplified example of a chart:

Key:

• S = Stand
• H = Hit
• D = Double (if not allowed, then hit)
• R = Surrender (if not allowed, then hit)

The Mathematics Behind the Charts

The creation of a blackjack strategy chart is rooted in the principles of probability theory and statistics. These scientific disciplines allow us to predict the likelihood of an event occurring based on a set of defined conditions.

In the context of a single deck blackjack game, the probabilities of drawing each card from the deck are known. For instance, there are four 10s (10, Jack, Queen, King) in a deck of 52 cards, so the probability of drawing a 10 is 4/52 or about 7.7%.

However, determining the best action for a given hand isn't as simple as just understanding these individual probabilities. The strategy chart must consider the probabilities of all possible outcomes for each combination of the player's hand and the dealer's up card.

To illustrate, let's consider a simple scenario where a player has a total of 16 and the dealer's up card is a 10. The player can either hit or stand. If they stand, they will only win if the dealer busts, which is less likely with a 10 up card. If they hit, they have a high chance of busting themselves, but they also have the chance of drawing a 5 or less, which would improve their hand.

The probabilities of all these outcomes must be calculated. For instance, the chance of the player busting if they hit can be calculated by adding up the probabilities of drawing each of the cards that would make them bust (any card from 6 to 10).

But we also have to consider the outcomes of the next few cards, not just the immediate next card. If the player draws a 2 to make 18, what is the chance that the dealer will still beat them? This requires simulating the possible outcomes of the dealer's hand as well.

Complicating matters further, each decision carries its own potential payoffs. Winning by hitting instead of standing doesn't just mean a higher chance of winning; it also means avoiding a guaranteed loss. Meanwhile, standing carries the chance of a win if the dealer busts.

By simulating all of these possibilities, the strategy chart can calculate the expected value of each decision. The expected value is the average amount a player can expect to win or lose by making that decision, calculated by multiplying the payoff of each outcome by its probability, and then summing these results.

In our example with a hand of 16 against a dealer's 10, the chart might find that the expected value of hitting is higher than standing, even though both decisions carry a high risk of losing. This is because the potential payoff of hitting and not busting outweighs the likely loss from busting.

This process is repeated for all possible combinations of player hands and dealer up cards, resulting in the complete blackjack strategy chart. As you can see, this is a highly complex mathematical process, but the end result is a powerful tool that can significantly improve a player's chances of winning at blackjack.

Remember, the calculations behind these charts are based on the assumption of perfect play from the player. This means they assume the player always makes the decision with the highest expected value and never makes mistakes. In reality, of course, human players are not perfect and do make mistakes, but by following the chart as closely as possible, they can still greatly improve their chances.

Finding the Right Chart for Your Game

One of the most important aspects of using blackjack strategy charts effectively is finding the right chart for the specific variant of the game you are playing. Different variants of blackjack have different rules, which can influence the optimal strategy.

For instance, some games allow players to surrender, while others do not. In games where the dealer must hit on soft 17, the strategy is slightly different than in games where the dealer stands on soft 17. Number of decks used, whether the dealer peeks for blackjack, whether the player can double after splitting, all these rules influence the basic strategy, hence the chart.

Before you start playing, it's important to know the specific rules of your game and find a strategy chart that matches those rules. Many online resources provide a variety of charts tailored to different game rules.

The Legality of Blackjack Strategy Charts

The use of blackjack strategy charts is completely legal. Casinos understand that these charts are based on statistical probabilities and do not guarantee a win for the player. While they can help a player make the best possible decision in each scenario, they do not alter the inherent house edge in the game. Some casinos may frown upon their use at the table, as it can slow down the pace of the game, but they are perfectly legal to use. However, it's always a good idea to memorize the chart as much as possible before playing, as this will help you make decisions more quickly and confidently. Always check with the specific rules of the casino where you are playing to ensure you are not breaking any of their policies.

Use Your Chart at Queenplay Today

A blackjack strategy chart is an invaluable tool for any blackjack player. By providing the statistically optimal move, it guides players toward the plays that will, over the long run, lead to the most wins or the smallest losses. At Queenplay, we have a huge number of blackjack variants for your enjoyment and you will have no problem finding strategy charts for any of them online. Head over to the casino today with your strategy chart and perhaps, you’ll hit a winning streak.